Some preliminary analysis

So the total number of Tony nominations are spread out among 26 different productions. Of those, 14 shows received 4 nominations or more, split evenly between straight plays and musicals. "In the Heights" got the most nominations with 13 (the whole list is below).

Maybe it's a false impression, but this seems to be a more compact field of nominated productions than in the past. And maybe I'm totally off base, but even though I haven't seen a single one of these productions (yikes!), I feel like I could do a pretty good job predicting some winners. Some of my thoughts:

-- The most interesting race to me is the "Gypsy" -- "South Pacific" musical revival showdown. I think it'll be close but that "South Pacific" will win. I've read raves about both but the fact that this is SP's first revival will play in its favor.

-- It's hard for me to imagine any show beating "August: Osage County" for best play, though I may be rooting for "The Seafarer." I tried hard to get my best old drinking buddy to go on a wild jaunt to NYC to see that show before it closed but we couldn't swing it. I really wish we had been successful.

-- It's pretty interesting how many "Hollywood" actors are nominated (Martha Plimpton, Laurence Fishburne, S. Epatha Merkerson, Laurie Metcalf, Patrick Stewart, etc.) but even more interesting to me the big names that were not nominated, like Laura Linney for "Les Liaisons Dangereuses," Kevin Kline for "Cyrano" and Nathan Lane for "November."

Anyone with more informed opinions of the nominees, please chime in!

Straight Plays

August: Osage County: 7 noms

The 39 Steps: 6 noms

Boeing-Boeing (revival): 6 noms

Macbeth (revival): 6 noms

Les Liaisons Dangereuses (revival): 5 noms

Rock 'n' Roll: 4 noms

The Seafarer: 4 noms

Musicals

In The Heights: 13 noms

South Pacific (revival): 11 noms

Sunday in the Park with George (revival): 9 noms

Passing Strange: 7 noms

Gypsy (revival): 7 noms
Cry-Baby: 4 noms

Xanadu: 4 noms